Topic
Overfitting
3 episodes
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Overview: Predictive Modeling
We finally slow down and explain predictive modeling from the ground up — the core idea that powers most of what we talk about on this show, from fraud detection to weather forecasting to the brain-prediction research we've looked at.
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Overview: Model Generalization
We finally slow down and make model generalization click from the ground up: what it means, how you measure it, and why memorizing the training set is a dead end. We keep coming back to the same simple idea, because that’s the whole game.
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Overview: Train Test Split
We finally slow down on train-test split, because we keep bumping into it every time we talk about whether a model actually learned something. We use the sealed-final-exam picture to make the training set, validation set, test set, overfitting, leakage, and cross-validation click without assuming ML background.